How analysts use OSINT to uncover Russian war crimes: satellite imagery, social media analysis, and AI

Russia's aggressive war violates basic principles of international law, such as state sovereignty and territorial integrity, and such actions have caused severe changes in the occupied regions, such as ethnic cleansing, property destruction, and violence against civilians. These crimes cannot go unpunished; documentation of such crimes must be recorded for further investigation and prosecution. Cyberweapons are becoming increasingly popular as an auxiliary tool for recording these crimes in this case. Given that using digital technologies to collect, analyze, and interpret data is a complex task, this field places high demands on specialists.

Satellite imagery as a tool for documenting war crimes

Using modern technologies, such as satellite imagery, is one of the most important tools for documenting war crimes. Satellite imagery provides real-time evidence, including the location of military equipment and objects that may be linked to war crimes. This data aids in the collection of objective and reliable evidence for use in court proceedings. According to OsintFlow community experts who actively use modern technologies on the cyber front, "the advantage of satellite imagery is in the recorded history of changes. You can rewind the images in time and see who was moving from where, what weapons were installed (the root cause), the location of military forces, etc.”

One of the most prominent examples of using satellite imagery is the investigation by the Molfar OSINT agency regarding the explosion at the Kakhovska Hydroelectric Power Station (HPP). "In this case, a combination of satellite images, videos taken by the occupants directly near the HPP, and their photographs allowed the recreation of the sequence of events. Satellite images helped identify changes before and after the explosion. This research effectively refuted the version of the Russian propaganda about a supposed dam strike by the Ukrainian Armed Forces."

One of the main challenges lies in the training and development of specialists capable of correctly analyzing and interpreting satellite data. Ensuring high quality and objectivity of analysis is an essential prerequisite for using this data as evidence in international tribunals. “Satellite images are not just tools for governments and large organizations. They are accessible to many people, opening up independent investigations and analysis possibilities. One of the prominent examples of such usage is the work of the activist-investigator Oryx, who employs satellite imagery to track losses of military equipment on both sides of the Russian-Ukrainian war," commented Molfar.

On the front lines of OSINT intelligence: uncovering Russian war crimes using open sources of information

OSINT activities also play an essential role in documenting war crimes. It grants access to electronic data, including correspondence, documents, and other electronic records that can be used as evidence in court. Furthermore, OSINT can be used to detect and identify criminals, assisting in their prosecution. Social media analysis, according to OsintFlow experts, is also noteworthy among modern technologies. "People like to share photos and videos when there is also a geolocation tag; it is a ‘gift’ for investigators. Search for people by photo using data sets, comments, and public reaction analysis... Depending on the initial data, There can be many of them," the investigative community noted.

In addition, OSINT can be useful in detecting and documenting war crimes, allowing for online investigations and finding digital traces of crime, complementing satellite data. "A significant amount of information required for investigating various war crimes is already publicly available. OSINT analysts collect and analyze these fragments. Their objective is to reconstruct an accurate picture of what happened. We learn about troop movements, weaponry, Russian strategy, and can even predict some future steps from open sources," said at Molfar OSINT agency.

Berkeley Protocol & HUMINT: The principles of investigation for recording Russian war crimes

Many countries and international organizations actively use OSINT, satellite imagery and cyber weapons to detect war crimes. "Today, virtually all developed countries use satellite data and cyber weapons to detect war crimes. This is the present and the future," the OsintFlow community emphasizes. Cooperation between these organizations and countries will help improve the detection and documentation of crimes and facilitate the effective implementation of Berkeley protocols and international investigative standards.

The Berkeley Protocol as a tool provides guidelines on international standards for online investigations. It contributes to a systematic and scientific approach to data collection, allowing it to be used effectively in court. In particular, it makes it possible to identify disinformation and fake news sources, which are spread to cloud the picture of events and conceal real war crimes. The Berkeley Protocol makes it possible to analyze large amounts of data from various sources, including social networks, media, satellite images, and other sources. Such analysis enables the identification of connections, the discovery of patterns, and the implementation of a systematic investigation approach.

However, the use of this protocol is fraught with challenges and limitations. Data security and confidentiality are a priority, as hostile forces may try to obstruct investigations and misinform the public. Furthermore, the Berkeley Protocol necessitates the presence of highly skilled professionals capable of analyzing and interpreting data from various sources. Training and development of such specialists is an essential prerequisite for successful protocol use and effective investigations.

Despite the challenges, implementing the Berkeley Protocol is a step towards achieving justice and accountability for Russia's war crimes. This approach allows for objective recording of human rights violations and provides grounds for further prosecution of perpetrators before international tribunals.

The most intensive and effective means of investigation is also HUMINT (human intelligence). This method involves direct contact with individuals who possess information about Russian military actions and possible violations. “This method requires direct engagement with the subject of investigation. It enables acquiring deeper information,” said at Molfar's OSINT agency. These individuals could be witnesses, conflict participants, military personnel, and more. HUMINT enables the acquisition of more detailed and specific information that would otherwise be unavailable from other sources.

Among other methods, the study of corporate networks is worth mentioning. According to Molfar, “User data, IP address analysis, and equipment ensure a comprehensive and balanced view of the research topic. This hybrid approach enables precise and comprehensive analysis."

It's important to note that using modern cyber tools contributes to acquiring additional information. Analyzing digital traces, intercepting communications, and identifying the targets of Russian military actions can provide important context for investigations.

The future prospects for the development of OSINT technologies and the use of satellite imagery to uncover war crimes indeed promise to be exciting and transformative for investigative approaches in this field. In this context, the advancement of AI and its integration into data analysis will be critical. “Likely, existing methods like contact tracing, geotagging, and frame analysis will continue to exist, but they will be complemented by artificial intelligence,” shared Molfar’s representative.

By challenging existing methods, it can be predicted that they will expand and deepen through AI. Automating data collection from open sources like social media and news sites will enable the collection of large amounts of information faster and more efficiently. AI will also be able to identify connections and patterns that might go unnoticed by humans.

Of course, the role of the expert analyst remains indispensable, someone who can extract the most crucial information, interpret data, and differentiate contextual nuances. “It's expected that in the future, OSINT technologies will continue to evolve and find applications in various fields such as law enforcement, military intelligence, and humanitarian research,” emphasized at Molfar. One of these cases is the identification of the aggressor country's military base through the study of video content by Russian propagandist Solovyov. In solving war crimes, it is also important to consider the activities of those involved in the commission of crimes. For example, investigation of the activities of Maria Lvova-Belova, the Russian children's ombudsman, who is involved in the illegal deportation of children from the territory of Ukraine.

To conclude, the successful use of OSINT technologies, satellite imagery and cyberweapons to document war crimes depends on the search, storage and protection of the data obtained. Proper access control to this data, its storage on secure servers and effective analysis will ensure maximum efficiency and objectivity of investigations. The use of OSINT to solve war crimes has great potential, but requires concerted action, ethical consideration, and legal attention. Cases such as the identification of military targets and analysis of the activities of individuals associated with the Russian aggression in Ukraine as a result of the invasion are an important contribution to identifying violations of international law and gathering evidence to bring criminals to justice. We can facilitate a more objective judiciary process and accountability for crimes through OSINT technologies, satellite imagery, and cyber tools for documenting war crimes, contributing to international awareness and the prosecution of wrongdoers.